Future Positive – In followup to the publication Fouad Khan’s hypothesis On the Extinction of Species, I am pleased to publish some early comments on his seminal work.
James Howard Kunstler, the author of
The Long Emergency responds:
Khan tells us that exponential growth whether in bacteria or humans has a major impact on the finite environment it finds it self in. This is just as true for a culture of bacteria living in finite growth tank in a laboratory at the University of Houston or the entire human species living on a finite planet called Earth.
Timothy– I appreciate you sending this. I will print it out and read it. But as per the above, is this not a re-statement of Malthus? (I’m not anti-Malthus, by the way.)
Khan has discovered that exponential growth increases the rate of change of entropy,
This is not surprising, since entropy is a function of the dispersion of energy.
Now the only way for us to avoid extinction is to change our behavior. We must reduce our population. I’m sure this will happen whether we put our minds to it or not. And I don’t mean to be snooty about it. I see our numbers falling off a cliff in the next 50 years. Oil depletion = food depletion. Then figure in social disorder, geopolitical discord, etc.
James Howard Kunstler
My response to James Howard Kunstler
Jim,
Thanks for your quick response. I look forward to your thoughts when you have had time to digest the full paper. I very much enjoyed The Long Emergency and World Made by Hand. I have reposted many of your articles on my websites. I most enjoy your posts on the positive things we could do. If we weren’t so determined to commit humanicide.
Malthus was correct in many ways, but he lived 1776 to 1834. Rudolf Clausius coined the term entropy in 1850. What is remarkable about Khan’s work is his connection of relatively unlimited resources to exponential growth resulting in a hyperentropic growth phase. What overwhelms a species is not change, but the rate of change.
Thus Khan gets us out of the world of opinion and into the world of scientific proof.
I have suggested that what Khan called hyperentropic growth phase could also be expressed as a hyper-entropic pollution phase. Malthus thought the limitation on population would be only because we ran out of food. Khan’s work demonstrates that we might actually have enough food, but poison ourselves with our waste.
I don’t know if Khan did this, but it would be interesting to see what happens if you kept feeding the bacteria in the growth tank benzene, thus no shortage of food, but the effects of hypertropic growth would still impact their finite living space.
By the way, I discovered Khan as one of the commentors on Clusterfuck Nation. Small world.
I also got a quick response from Jay Hanson. He said he would take a look and get back to me.
Best,
Timothy
Response from
Fouad Khan.
Dear Timothy,
Thanks for spreading the word on my book, and for your very apt clarifications to Jim’s comments.
I’ve been an avid reader of Mr. Kunstler as well for a while now. I even dug out an old copy of The Life of Byron Jaynes from somewhere and read it; very immersive and entertaining.
You are right about Malthus. What he’s talking about, to oversimplify to some extent, is the finiteness of any one resource in a system. I think, that is just one physical manifestation of what is essentially, a living species running out of breathing space on the spectrum of permissible rates of change of entropy (the band of rates to which the species can adapt). In humanity’s case for instance, we’d have been heading towards a serious disruption to our civilization right about now anyway -even if the earth did have a “creamy nougat centre of oil”- because of global climate change. That would not have been a Malthusian collapse, but it certainly would have been a case of a species rendering its own host system inadaptable for itself by accelerating the rate of change of entropy for that entire system.
A Malthusian collapse would have been the same thing as well, just expressed differently in physical terms.
Timothy, the writings of both, Mr. Kunstler and Mr. Hanson have informed and entertained me immensely over the years and I am looking forward to their feedback on this.
Regards,
Fouad Khan.
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