The conclusion John Pilger arrives at is the same one arrived at by George Monbiot; another excellent journalist; in his article in last weeks Guardian (a UK broadsheet). It’s about oil. Again. Apparently.
The theory is actually a very simple one as described by Pilger…
“Bush’s concealed agenda is to exploit the oil and gas reserves in the Caspian basin, the greatest source of untapped fossil fuel on earth and enough, according to one estimate, to meet America’s voracious energy needs for a generation. Only if the pipeline runs through Afghanistan can the Americans hope to control it.”
George Monbiot similarly states…
“In 1998, Dick Cheney, now US vice-president but then chief executive of a major oil services company, remarked, “I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian.” But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is moved. The only route which makes both political and economic sense is through Afghanistan.” …
John Pilger does appear aware that Unocal are no longer active in Afghanistan. However, he insists that “[a]lthough the deal fell through, it remains an urgent priority of the administration of George W. Bush“. Well, he fails to present any evidence whatsoever to support that assertion. However, you may recall my mentioning that the ChevronTexaco Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline didn’t have official US endorsement. And, oh by the way, what are the other oil companies up to? Perhaps awaiting the pacification of Afghanistan by B-52 prior to laying thousands of miles of pipe?
Well no. It appears they aren’t doing anything of the sort. Royal Dutch/Shell, ChevronTexaco (again), and ExxonMobil are busy working with US government endorsement on what’s known as (with great obviousness) the “Main Export Pipeline”. Unsurprisingly it goes nowhere near Afghanistan. Rather – and this may come as a surprise to those familiar with the ways of government and big business – it’s actually the “common sense” route. …
When all is said and done, there is probably little doubt that there would be export pipelines running through Afghanistan if the situation in Central Asia were very different. With a stable liberal democracy open to market-capitalism and not averse to a bit of US cultural colonialism in the area, then a pipeline south to the Pakistan coast would make sense as another option in the Caspian export strategy. However, nobody believes that is achievable any time soon. Whatever government is installed or elected in Kabul; they will be overseeing a nation divided along ethnic grounds; a nation battered by famine, drought and civil war; a poverty-stricken nation demoralised and angered by carpet bombing from the most powerful nation on earth. Anti-Americanism and the extreme fringe of islam will not be driven from the region, and I don’t honestly believe that anyone thinks it will. Personally I believe the campaign in Afghanistan is terribly misjudged, but without a hidden agenda that makes sense. I would say though, if you are seeking a conspiracy-theory, the poppy-fields of Afghanistan make a far more likely starting-point.
The oil-fields of the Caspian just don’t seem to factor.