There are a small number of humans that have become aware of the fossil fuel energy crisis. They have been investigating the facts on their own, reading and researching, and here are their conclusions in their own words.
Bruce Thompson
Palmerston North, New Zealand
As I understand things, the energy decline is an imminent reality that will increasingly affect our lives from now on, but probably very harshly from about 2007 to 2030.
Very few people in the world have explored the phenomenon as carefully as we have in EnergyResources and RunningOnEmpty. Therefore almost nobody is aware of the crucial aspects of the energy decline, specifically:
(a) The quantities of energy the world is using and is dependent on at present.
(b) The pitiful inadequacy of the so-called alternative fuels, as substitutes them for oil and gas, and the terrible smallness of the potential supplies of renewables compared with the huge world appetite for energy.
(c) The tremendous resistance of people to any change from growth of consumption.
(d) The gigantic amounts of energy that would be needed to even partially adapt away from oil and gas-fuelled lifestyles.
(e) The amount of time required to change the world’s infrastructure away from oil and gas.
So, considering those things, I’m going to give up trying to alert the world. Instead I’ll just live a local, domestic life, enjoying renovating my house, but trying to live my life in a way that resists and delays the death of the planet.
John Michael Greer
Seattle, WA USA
Western industrial civilization is in the early-middle stages of what will probably turn out to be its terminal crisis. Over a hundred years ago, perceptive people in Europe and America were already comparing the modern West to ancient Rome and other vanished civilizations and suggesting that a collapse was approaching. With hindsight, it’s clear that the petroleum economy served to stave off catastrophe for a time, by substituting cheap energy for the natural and cultural resources already dwindling rapidly in 1880.
The energy economy of the twentieth century demanded an ever increasing level of cheap energy use. That energy was almost entirely provided by petroleum and, in the last decades of the century, natural gas. While other fuels and energy sources were used, they received a massive “energy subsidy” from oil.
For example, coal was (and is) excavated and transported by machinery powered by oil, not by coal. It takes about three times as much coal as oil to do the same amount of work; if coal had to be mined, processed and shipped using coal-powered machinery, costs would soar and efficiencies would slump by a factor of three. In the case of nuclear power, the amount of (mostly oil-based) energy that has to be poured into the process—to mine, process, ship and handle the fuel, to build and maintain the reactor and other capital plant, and to handle the waste—is so great that a nuclear reactor might best be considered as a somewhat inefficient way to turn oil into electricity.
So the entire structure of modern industrial civilization is dependent on an ever expanding flow of cheap oil. But as M. King Hubbert pointed out decades ago, there is only so much oil in the planet, and at a certain point—by his calculations, around 2000—enough of it would have been extracted that production would peak and begin to decline. At this point, we are within a few years of the Hubbert peak and the beginning of a permanent, continuing decline in oil and gas production.
This decline cannot be effectively met by bringing new energy sources on line. That requires massive amounts of money, existing energy resources, and time—none of which are available in the required amounts at this point. Had the efforts toward conservation and new energy resources made in the 1970s been carried through in the 1980s and 1990s, we would probably be able to pull through the Hubbert peak and its aftermath. At this point, that option no longer exists.
Where we’re going: The most likely outcome of the trends outlined above, then, is the collapse of Western industrial civilization, the dawn of a new dark age, and the gradual emergence of successor cultures over a period of some centuries. Enough civilizations have collapsed in recorded history that we have a fair idea what to expect. It will almost certainly be a relatively slow process, unfolding over a timespan of decades, with periods of severe hardship, intervals of relative stability, and even some periods of partial recovery and slight improvement breaking the general downward trend.
Considerable dieoff is pretty much guaranteed, in large part because the vast majority of people in the Western nations have no idea how to carry out the simplest activities of life without the help of a massive industrial technostructure. Just to name one example, how many people can efficiently light a fire without matches or butane lighters?
It doesn’t help that far too many of the people who think they are preparing for a catastrophe are doing so in totally counterproductive ways. While methods of personal and community defense have to be considered, a stockpile of guns and ammo by itself won’t make up for the collapse of food production and distribution systems, health care, and other basic necessities of life. At most, it will allow armed survivalists to plunder or enslave those less well armed, until the ammo runs out.
The crucial steps that have to be taken, now, by people who are interested in surviving the approaching collapse, are these:
(a) Training in low-tech methods of getting by. If you know how to provide your own food, medicine, shelter, warmth and other essentials of life, you have a chance at survival. If not, you’re toast. Training in self-defense methods certainly should not be neglected, but will not by itself make up for the absence of other training.
(b) Training in handcrafts (including the efficient repair of existing technologies). The century or two following the collapse will be governed by a dialectic between the efforts to preserve what can be saved of the old technologies, on the one hand, and the effort to create new (or revive pre-industrial) technologies based on local resources, on the other. Having skills in both directions is likely to be a very good idea. The ability to scavenge parts, assemble a working refrigerator, and keep it running on some mix of alternative energy resources is an example of the first set of skills; the ability to harvest natural fibers, weave them into cloth, and turn the cloth into clothing is an example of the second.
(c) Formation of local community-based networks. The basic unit of long-term survival is the community, not the individual. A community of like-minded people, used to working together and linked by bonds of friendship and trust, can accomplish much that is impossible to a mass of isolated individuals. Existing community organizations such as churches, neighborhood associations, and fraternal orders are potentially important resources for this process.
(d) Establishment and support of alternative subsistence economies. The farmers market movement, which has expanded from nearly nothing to a $16 billion a year industry in the US alone in the last decade and a half, is a good example of what can be created—an alternative food supply system which cuts most of the industrial economy out of the loop, and allows local farmers to sell food directly to local consumers. Such alternative marketplaces will evolve during the collapse, but the more of them take shape beforehand, the less drastic the disruptions will be.
Bill Thommes
Port Dover,ON, Canada
Regarding our future in Energy supply I do foresee two scenarios:
Scenario # 1, The US:
Oil and Natural Gas will be shipped into the US from wherever they can extract it. Middle East or Caspian Basin, Central or South America or Canada. The present armed aggression in Afghanistan shows me that they are preparing to have a back up supply in case the Middle East has a problem. The House of Saud is on shaky grounds and they are the major supplier from the Middle East. Iraq has quite a sizable reserve in the ground and the embargo of oil for food and medical supplies is being enforced only by the US and Britain, I have a sneaky feeling that the Iraq reserves are kept as an emergency back up if the need arises
So, the US will be the last country to suffer from oil shortage, because if they cannot buy it, they will take it by force.
Scenario # 2, The rest of the World:
When oil supply is reduced due to exhaustion of wells, the rest of the world will face the energy crunch first. Developing countries will be feeling it first, when oil prices go up beyond their means of obtaining it. Thereafter the partially developed countries and the rest will follow. Massive loss of human lives, hardship for survivors, marshall law, riots and misery. Not a good future by no means.
A lot of people have very good intentions but do forget the human factor ( Same problem Economists have, who think Oil = Money) The ones in power will have, the working stiffs will get screwed as usual, no exceptions, nowhere.
If there is no way to make a large profit in bringing an alternate
energy form online, it will not happen.
For the working stiff, Solar panels and Wind Energy will not happen. It is too expensive to buy and set up so kiss the creature comforts goodbye.
Cities will be the first ones to feel the crunch. Too many people cramped together in a small space. Foods will not be in abundance since farmers cannot grow the quantities anymore to feed the population. The increased cost of fertilizer and fuel will drive food prices up. Add the profit margins of the food industry and prices are through the roof.
Observations in cities and country have shown me that very few people live where they work. When fuels are scarce this will be the downfall for a lot of people.
Most people rely on the Governments to look after them in case of need. Good Luck.
Dictatorial Powers now being taken by Governments, will stay and escalate. Slavery will be back in style, big time. ( Some people call it serfdom )
People living in the country like me, will be better off, at least for some time when things get tough. After that ——- who knows.
A lot of discussions were about how much energy input is needed to produce a certain form of alternative energy. In a perfect world this would have relevance, because all people would care to make an effort to survive and live in harmony with each other and nature. The good for all, will dominate our thinking. In reality we are living in a dog eat dog society. The bigger dog eats the smaller one.
I do understand the philosophy behind all the good will and thoughts from all of you. BUT – the fact is that our planet is actually run by a very few. Corporate greed, power and money are the Gods for these people. You and I do not count, and when the proverbial S**t hits the fan, we are only collateral damage.
The majority of people on this planet only will believe the coming energy crunch if they hear it on Radio, see it on TV or read it in the Newspaper. Our Mass Media is censored by the same people which run this planet. Taking to people about it, in my opinion and experience, is wasted time. ROE2 has about 450 members out of over 6 Billion people on this planet. This should tell you something.
Ted Howard
Nelson New Zealand
About 2 years ago I read the Daniel Quinn books “Ishmael”, “Story Of B”, “My Ishmael”, “Beyond Civilisation”, and the Thom Hartman book “Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight”. Along with a friend Ron Resnick, we formed a book discussion group to share these and other titles last year. At the same time we got our first computer and went online. Ron told me of his discoveries of great websites such as Jay’s dieoff.org and E-Groups Alas Babylon, ROE, and Conspiranoia. I became a member too, and have got to see some very interesting posts over the last 6 to 12 months!
I have also been on a local Zero Waste committee pushing our local council to adopt this new approach to waste management. This gave me a great insight as to how the local “Powers That Be” work (or in most cases don’t!!)
In my humble opinion, we are living under the Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times!” To quote Daniel Quinn our “mother culture” is keeping us in an incredible state of chasing our tails and in deep denial about how close our civilisation is to at least decline, and at worst catastrophic dieoff. This is not being helped by the crazy power plays of the NWO or the big corporations who are sitting on (or squashing) alternative energy or manufacturing systems that could lead to a more sustainable future. The incredible struggle to establish legal hemp trials by some folks I know here, is the tip of a huge inertia that I wonder whether will shift in time.
The geological facts as discussed on dieoff.org and on this group, leave no doubt in my mind the limited oil resources we have left, and that when I look around my shop, my town, district, country or globally, EVERYTHING is going to change!
The facts about how the remanent indigenous “Leaver” cultures lived in a state of harmony with their environment seems to me to be part of the key to our future. These are signs of advanced cultures! I would like to see further discussion about this, not just about how we could build better bioharmonic houses, but this is a good starting point!
Perry Arnett
Cedar City, Utah
The Richard Duncan Olduvai Gorge scenarios seem to be the most concise way I can describe my view; add the 911 events, ‘1984-like’ governments, and the world governmental fiat currency and interest-rate manipulations/financial shenanigans to the mix and we have a helluva whirlwind ahead of us. The absolute corruption of the tyrrants is without precedent. Individual liberty has ceased to exist.
Nuclear war seems imminent and it will be the U.S. who uses them next [SOON]; the bio and chem threats seem more probable and credible with each passing day. The human race will survive, of course, for a while, but maybe with less than a few million survivors, near-term.
Rampant population increase will not [EVER] be checked until some major WMD is used; even then, the legacy for those left who are not of the privileged class will be unthinkable.
For most, then, survival, rather than increase, will be the most difficult immediate and on-going task. Profit, growth and increase are words that have lost their relevance and meaning – except as regards population.
The 150 or so years of Hydro-carbon Man are nearing their end – and there is no other energy source standing in the wings capable of replacing fossil fuels, and extending life ‘as we know it’, notwithstanding the vociferous protestations of those who don’t yet ‘get it’.
The major ‘dumbing-down’ of the world’s populations may be the natural course of human history. The Age of Enlightenment came – reached a zenith in the 1970’s, and is rapidly dwindling. We are probably entering a new (and final) Dark Age from which there will be no Renaissance.
Humankind may, in fact, be just a ‘blip on the screen’ of the Universe; some of us alive now may be witness to humanity’s decline. Getting over that thought is the first step to understanding current events.
I don’t see the laws of Thermodynamics, or Entropy, (or Malthus or Bartlett) being repealed any time soon.
I hate to sound negative, and in fact, think of my view as being ‘realistic’, not optimistic nor pessimistic. I have no trouble discussing all this with my kids who seem more aware than even I probably realize.
As individuals, we can ‘act’ in our own small local sphere, but on the macro-scale, we are, most of us, but re-actors, pawns, sheeple or bipeds – grist in the Wheels of the Universe.
Thus, allow me to suggest that while one engages in the pressing demands of the day, one also taste more fine wine, listen to more Italian opera, read only the BEST books, chase more skirts, ponder the Grand Concepts, do no harm, – and if possible, leave This Place better than one found it.
My glass is half-empty – on the way to becoming half-full!
Joe Whaley
Rockville, Maryland, USA
I live and work in Rockville, Maryland, USA, which is a suburb of Washington, DC. This brings me into contact with a variety of business people and individuals. There is little detectable community concern about the oil crash, nor about any of the other alarming issues with which we should be concerned. The only exception is the 911-related issues. We are awash in American flags here, and so am I. (Note to bin Laden and ilk: you have bitten off a lot more than you can chew. You have started this fight. We will finish it. Stay tuned.)
Running On Empty is a response to analysis indicating that the oil crash will arrive much sooner than most people believe, and that the worldwide Hubbert Peak of production is due in about 5 to 10 years, with a steady decline (at current prices) of about 3% per year from then on. Price increases will increase production, thereby masking the crisis but shortening the time to disaster. Eventually the energy cost of extraction will equal the energy extracted, but long before then the party will be over due to frantic resource wars.
However, let’s face it: everyone knows that natural hydrocarbons are finite in quantity; therefore the only question is not “whether” but “when” the human race will have used it all up.
In their hearts, people know this is a real problem. (Good grief, it was the topic of a hit James Bond movie in the 1960s!)
Still, even the people who are attentive to their children’s health and school success seem unconcerned about this profound risk to the very survival of their children (and grandchildren, etc.)
This whole situation has, for me, moved to the point of wonder about the psychological or psychiatric aspect of our society’s display of being in denial.
In my experience, it is futile to raise this topic with other than a tiny handful of people. The experience is comparable to trying to make a ladder out of Jello.
Since these people appear functional in other aspects of life (they can usually walk across a street without being run down, they show up for work, they brush their teeth, and so forth) it is puzzling to me that there is such an inability to function in
reference to this particular threat. After all, these people typically are not preoccupied with overpowering emergencies all the time. They are available for parties, divorces, shopping, gossip, Microsoft classes, TV sports, fantasy football, having another beer, forwarding email chain letters, etc. Clearly they have the time.
And this issue is not rocket science, after all.
The basic problem, therefore, is not our inability to determine the proper wording of the Convince Sheet. The issue is not “us” on ROE, it is “them” in the world and their personal strategies for coping with life. Interestingly, of course, we are part of them. We do the same stuff.
Before we get overly judgemental about others, I suggest we should each publish our personal written plans to contribute to a solution, together with a candid history of our personal efforts and results. (Mine is on sale at Borders Books, next to the Wit and Wisdom of Dan Quayle.) (grin!) (For those of you who haven’t read the Quayle book, every page is blank…)
So, I would be very interested in communicating with anyone about this situation.
Jim Mitchell
South Wales
I remember about eight years ago I first seriously came across the idea of Oil Depletion (before that it was only watching things like Mad Max 2). I was reading Environmental Biology in Swansea University and our Natural Resources lecturer had a bit of a thing about how many horses it would take to satisfy the energy demand for modern agriculture ( I can’t recall the figures but it involved a lot of mucking out). I remember feeling a bit uneasy about the potential problems but when I half heartedly researched possible crash dates for an essay I couldn’t find much about the subject in the college library (this being before the internet). The subject then fell to the back of my mind until last year when I discovered Running on Empty info through an internet search. I was blown away – to put it mildly. Since then I have been a passive but avid member and have followed most of the not too technical discussions.
I am a Woodland / Forest Education and Interpretation Ranger and my job involves teaching kids about woodland and its uses, history, environmental education etc. I regularly teach 11-14 year olds “Sustainable Forestry” and since I found ROE the topics of resource depletion and plastic / wood comparisons always crop up! The students are always pretty interested and I try and spread a bit of the information and its possible implications. This is limited in a 1/2 day session but we have had some good discussions. We get a lot of kids who are naturally keen on finding more out ( and its not just the nihilistic ones). A few times the question of weather we should be spreading the word has been discussed by ROE group; I believe like most that it is good to spread the word, not just to politicians ( I have done a bit of that – The Welsh Assembly is the only country in the world to have the word “sustainable” in its constitution- but they don’t seem too interested ) but to friends and family and if applicable to students. I would definitely not change my state of knowing – and therefore preparing (wind up torch for Christmas!) about die off.
I am a bit of an optimist by nature – for die off this could mean two things – either I am in denial ( I recently read a good article in the Observer about the denial phenomenon as it applied to Global Warming) or I feel that ultimately as a species – we’ve got it coming. Any basic ecology book has got our future it and I do think that after the huge suffering will come a chance to live a bit more realistically. The other species on the planet probably think so too. I also believe that one of the most important things to have is a sense of humour- not about death and misery -but about the surrealness of human existence on this planet and all the meaning of life stuff which invariably you get into if you are discussing the oil crash over one too many beers.
J. Kent Nilsson
Sheboygan, WI, USA
My life experience has provided a deep insight into the fact that our “life values” vary enormously from culture to culture in all respects. All cultures highly value their cultures, yet many/most are indifferent or hostile to other cultures. [I’m using “culture” in the anthropological sense of course.]
The down side is a proclivity to make war to settle differences. Current technologies are such that any body of anybodies can wreak havoc upon any other anybodies anywhere on the planet.
The upside is a counter proclivity to voluntarily share philosophies and technologies which can, and therefore will, enable us to completely alter humanity’s fundamental stance regarding all life forms on this planet.
Even now while the Middle-East is in the midst of wholesale extermination of entire cultures thousands of years old, Northern European governments and private industries, and sectors of North American governments and private industries, are creating, installing, operating, and using attitudes, laws, educational institutions, etc. to create the emerging post-industrial culture. I have no name for it, so I’ll simply characterize it as cybernetic, intensely tailored to the concept of local micro-technologies supportive of local micro-ecologies.
This is not lunacy on my part. Get on an airplane and go to Sweden. Go all over Sweden east to west, south to north (all the way north). What’s fully functional in the totally new-born culture of Sweden is already partially happening in Germany and Switzerland. Take a look here to see what I am talking about:
http://www.naturalstep.org
http://members.ozemail.com.au/~natstep/
http://www.tns.org.nz/
It is also happening in the USA, but our culture is not yet attuned to the required anthropological and legal ramifications of such change. However, the change is here and well established albeit totally unnoticed by standard organizations in commerce, manufacturing, farming, etc. Perhaps not surprising, there is visible activity in the State of Minnesota.
Thank you, one and all, for giving me an opportunity to let those who care, and are interested in our planet’s future support of Life, be made aware that epochal change is possible, underway, and life supporting rather than life extinguishing.
Lastly, I am fully aware that resources are finite. Non-life resources are non-renewable except for the sun. Life forms are renewable but also extinguishable. Can we create new life-forms? Yes. Can they be made to have infinite lives? I think not, but I won’t say no. I hope not, for I can find no comfort in living cheek to jowl on every inhabitable square inch.
Robert Waldrop
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
1. I do not know if it will be a fast crash or a slow crash.
2. I do not know that Jay Hansen’s hypothesis that oil depletion EQUALS billions of dead humans is prophecy. I am afraid he might be right.
3. I do think that oil depletion EQUALS a radical change in the way things work on this planet.
4. My personal strategy is to learn how to grow as much food as possible from the smallest area possible with the least amount of work, currently focusing on permaculture. Also on learning how to live with ever decreasing amounts of energy and money at my disposal. Simple, sustainable, frugal living as described extensively in my various webpages.
http://www.bettertimesinfo.org
http://www.energyconservationinfo.org
5. I am noticing a connection these days between US military action and low gasoline prices in the US. imho, this will tend to hasten the crash, make it faster, and thus more chaotic and deadly (more likely to be in the Jay Hansen range than in the slow, managed decline ballpark). I think the US will try to establish military control over the Persian Gulf oil resources. The US and Russia will be allies against China.
Bill Porter
Cincinnati, OH
Odum says there are two ways to resolve our current unsustainable consumption of stored solar energy:
1. Live lightly on the Earth and get reaquainted with the Land.
2. Suffer a catastrophic crash.
In my opinion, we may have already passed the Point of No Return where such a choice between the above two alternatives was possible. It appears to me to be too late for the whole to pass unscathed into a sustainable future.
But there is time for individuals to work together so that islands of sufficiency, sustainability and knowledge preserve the best characteristics of humankind. So my personal plan is:
1. Paying down debts with goal of being debt free in about 3 years.
2. Joined local CSA – Community Supported Agriculture – farm as biofuels specialist and listserv manager for group of 150 like minded members and their families. The CSA is 8 miles from my house along the Little Miami Bike Trail or 9 miles by car. This CSA sponsors ongoing seminars and sustainability projects like greenhouse management, straw bale construction, organic pest control, aquaculture, bee management, etc.
I will be putting less effort into warning or discussing the impending decline and more effort into preparations working locally with those that are aware of the implications.
I am surprised that only a few follow the logic that:
The Earth is a finite sphere.
The resources of the earth are finite.
The human population is increasing.
The per capita energy demand is increasing.
Resources are being depleted.
Today the US imports over 50% of its fossil fuel requirements and may within 10 years, assuming no change from current trends, need to be importing 100% of the fossil fuel requirements.
The sources of said fossil fuel are in contested areas with inhabitants increasingly unfriendly toward the US and the West. We are at or near the peak in fossil fuel consumption. Dollars used to buy imported fossil fuels (and nearly everything else) are a highly leveraged ponzi game.
In the short term, an increased usage of nat gas, coal and nuclear power appears to be the path chosen by TPTB. This even though nat gas is on its own depletion scenario; coal carries a corresponding increase in carbon emissions to contribute to global warming and increased “natural damage” insurance claims, and no one has solved the safe storage of spent nuclear fuel or approached a positive yield on fusion.
So I am pessimistic for the whole, yet optimistic for the few that choose to act.
Prior to either a gradual decession or an energy cliff collapse/dieoff it seems to me that we are headed for greater economic stresses in increased unemployment and under employment; banking crises and wasteful resource wars..
Chester Walls
Nelson, NZ
My best case scenario; within 10 years the decline will be in full force and the people will be getting very restless, within 20 yrs people are dying from collapsed agriculture/financial/technological systems, water supply deficiencies, within 50 years the stench from bodies will be combined with acid rain as we burn all the coal we can find to stave off the end. In the next 200 years at least 4 billion people will die. 400 years down the track small communities of humans will survive around the world, very low tech agriculture, local trade and some sailing ships. Hopefully a Billion or so people on the planet. Population control via the old system..disease/famine
My worst case scenario; USA continues to use this as an opportunity to commandeer resources (Iraq next) and China/Russia/whoever decides they don’t like it. Nuclear discussions ensue, the planet no longer fit for human existence! Resource wars are/will get very intense on the decline slope under our current competitive paradigm. …
The personal dilemma, how do we balance living under the current paradigm whilst trying to learn to do without money and things. Food will be everything in the future. I find difficulty in small talk with others when there are such real and present dangers around the corner for us all, My wife turns foetal whenever I start on energy/humans, she likens it to living with Armageddon. I am constantly amazed at the complete disbelief/ignorance that most have on these matters, yet deep down I fully understand because 6 years ago I was the same. So much of what I see today is so very very wrong for the future of our species. How to get the knowledge out is the problem, we resist change so violently. …
I have a deep sadness for what a technological human society could have been, because I know that inside us all is the capacity for great good. We have squandered the opportunity to become great with technology which leaves only our mental ability which is maybe where evolution will lead us over the next millions of years.
Jacob Fisker
Denmark/Switzerland
I think it will be a slow crash. I do not foresee collapse at least not on a global scale. The stock markets may collapse when economists realize that an usury based economy is impossible if it follows the same 3% decline as the oil production – it can not exist without growth. So it collapses, so what? Factories still exists. The fields are there. Only people no longer entrust each other with money – there will be another system. Unfortunately these things will happen in different periods at different places in the world. You’ll have strong nations battling for resources (a particular one comes into mind) and still prospering (compared to a 3% decline) and poor nations trying to seal off their borders in order to regulate the decline. This will also happen internally in the countries. People will almost always try to take advantage of each other. Only great morals or central regulations will do (Tragedy of the commons – there will be attempts to reduce the “commons”).
Now the world has to adjust to a 3% physical decline. There are ways to do that. First – if people stop multiplying the population will decline due to natural death about as fast as the oil. Central regulations again. Another way is to cut away some of the slack and devices which came to be because they maximize profits rather than efficiency. Examples are cars, fast computers for everybody, mobile phones, beef, plastic junk, sprawl, etc..
One way is to tax consumption solely and directly. In the western world this will stop the incentive to have children – they will be too expensive This is the opposite of today, where more babies are seen as a source of growth). It will also minimize the consumption of ecologically expensive goods. If this tax could remove 3% of the money flow each year, the economic decline would follow naturally.
Of course a lot of people will lose out on this, so they will object. The majority rather prefer someone else to lose – preferably future generations – the future is discounted. Regulations.
I think the best way is to educate – one of the reasons that things are the way they are is that people are ignorants. They may be highly educated ignorants, but still ignorants. If people know the implications of their actions it will be easier for them to make the right ones.
In order to have growth you have to have decline – otherwise it’s called an explosion.
Charles Garner
Yakima WA
So, it is time to decide do you want to be a sheep or a wolf in sheep’s clothing? Do you want to be a survivor of the most fit? You can eliminate lucky with smarts. When the cornerstone is knocked out from under us the collapse will be fast not slow. There are too many jobs dependent on our global oil based economy. Just look in your yellow pages and rip out a handful.
However, there will probably be some kind of catalyst (e.g. no more Saudi Royalty when the fundamentalists revolt-this will happen). You simply cannot control a massive rebellion when the people have a cause. We will be weaned from the oil milkshake before it is sucked dry but not without a tantrum. Just as a Heroin addict might survive his addiction the industrialized countries might survive the fate that awaits them(us) but this could very well require organ transplants and medicine for life to prevent organ rejection. To be a wolf in sheep’s clothing
(1) Get out of the city and suburbs.
(2) Buy as much land as you can afford
(3) When you get overrun by the hungry mobs, feed them for a day, don’t try to teach them how to fish, and send them on their way.
(4) Wear 2 pistols by your side (not 1)
(5) Live and let die.
(6) Don’t waste any more money on new cars
(7) find others that think the same as you do
(8) have your own well water supply and solar heat to boil off the small pox (don’t accept any free blankets)
(9) start praying because the future is going to make some of you very religious
(10) don’t vote-it’s not patriotic (just look at the a–holes in office) who keep the general public(sheep) in the dark
(11) get out of the stock market before it is too late
(12) stay away from sheep-they’ll starve you and pull you down with their sorry eyes-it hurts but there is little you can do without lotteries to cut sperm lines
(13) follow your gut instincts-they are right (14) you have to choose- sorry soon there will be no more middle ground or middle class. _ P.S. I’m selling my home in the spring-to wait any longer would be foolish.
Tony Koonce
New Bern, NC
Will the energy crash happen slow or fast? To me it doesn’t matter. It will happen in my lifetime, that I know. I can’t possibly prepare for all possible scenarios. Survival will depend on a lot of luck and perseverance. And did I mention LUCK?
But if you want my future scenario, I think most of the early part of the decade will be more of the same, small wars, boom bust cycles with the economy. I believe that before the end of the decade, the energy crisis will turn to be front and center on everyone’s collective minds. The collapse of the economy will lead to a great depression. By the end of the 2010’s, much of the consumerist culture will be on the rocks. The world population will have crashed. The global economy will be dead and buried. Significant chances of limited nuclear war and large loss of life due to conflicts. The new dark age will be upon us. I give the process a total of 30 settle down to a new stability. A heck of a ride.
I’m in the process of building an Enertia House (www.enertia.com). Fully self heated and cooled by passive solar and geothermal sources. It works, I’ve seen it. I will put in solar hot water, a no brainer. I will plan for PV electric but will wait and see what happens with the technology.
The home sits on 5 acres of old farmland, about half wooded. There is 300,000 acres of national forest just on the other side of the road from my driveway. The ocean is about 20 miles away. The Neuse River is Ω mile away. There are several small specialty farms in the area growing everything from vegetables and greens, cows/pigs/chickens, ostrich, goats, and a small fruit orchard. I plan on starting my personal orchard as soon as possible. Probably not this summer but next start learning how to garden, successfully that is. I admit to my very light shade of green thumb.
I hope that what I’m doing will offer refuge for my family through the depression and on into the future. I want a place where my son and his family will also be able to take over and sustain themselves.
As I said earlier, all survival chances for me and my family will be based on luck. I will be better off than most during the economic collapse because of the energy efficiency of my house and the type of job I have. But after things start to tumble, all bets are off for anybody. There is no miracle waiting in the wings. Humans individually can be quite remarkable, collectively very scary. The inertia towards human’s undoing is too great. I will enjoy my time with those I love to the fullest. I will protect and provide for those I love the best I can.
I wouldn’t have planned the last few years like I did. Becoming well versed in the energy and oil problems has pushed me to do things that I otherwise probably would have avoided or done differently. My advise to anyone reading: Take steps to limit the damage that could be afflicted upon you by an economic and energy collapse. Large and unusual steps may be needed. Be willing to endure a little less comfort now to have at least SOME comfort later. Peace be with you all.
John Muir
Scotland
Everyone I know that became a driver also became addicted to cars (you know the line ‘I couldn’t live without my car because …’). This is the main reason I think there is no chance that we can avoid the upcoming oil crisis – very few, if any, motorists will give up their destructive way of life. In the UK alone the media were going crazy with glee a couple of months ago becasue the car industry was doing so well and that another 200,000 new cars had been sold! Add to this that oil is used (pointlessly) in packaging, etc. etc. etc. and that this use is increasing instead of being curbed and I think it is impossible to be anything except pessimistic.
Because of the above I have moved my family to a small village where I already have family and friends. We have started growing our own food, we are installing solar panels next year, transport is by bike (or bus if absolutely necessary). I don’t think that things will get as bad as quickly here as many of the groups US members think it will in the USA, for several reasons. Scotland’s population is FALLING, and it is small to begin with – only 5 million. Nobody ever thinks of Scotland as a place to run TO (many have run FROM here to sunnier climes :-)). As global warming begins to bite Scotland will get wetter, this is unlikely to encourage immigration either. Most of Scotland’s electricity could be produced from renewable sources, mainly hydro but many wind and wave plants are either being built or are already online. The transport problem will solve itself, if we don’t need to feed the great capitalist demon then why would we need to commute hundreds of miles a week. The end to global capitalism and US cultural imperialism are two of the great benefits that will happen when cheap oil vanishes, proving that every cloud has a silver lining.
Thanks to Bruce Thompson and all those who posted at the RunningOnEmpty2 Yahoo Group .