Horace Valentine
Scotland
Scotland
I am not convinced that the Post-Peak Period need result in extreme dieoff. Undoubtedly a diedown in civilisation will result but let’s get things in perspective. Consider the following:
(1) The rich (OECD) 19% of the worlds population (1.1 billion) consume 75% of the worlds energy.
(2) The non-rich (NON-OECD), 81% of the worlds population (4.6 billion) consume 25% of the worlds energy.
Source : From Here to Sustainability by the Real World Coalition 2001
This means that a person in the rich countries consumes some 12.8 times more energy than a person in a Non-OECD country. Assuming that the physical energy “needs” of a human being is universal, and unrelated to the waste or otherwise of the society in which they find themselves borne into, one can see that most people exist on energy resources many factors below the elite. So when the global energy consumption drops by half, most people will be unaffected in terms of energy, and the rich elite will soon learn the habits of the less-fortunate “have-nots”.
If 81% of people in the world exist on energy sources 12.8 times less than the elite, why cant the elite do likewise, and reduce their energy use 12.8 fold ? It is the elite that need to change their behaviour.
I know the reason this is difficult is that we are collectively a selfish load of slobs that wont believe in deferred gratification until it hits us in the face. And faced with the prospect of doing away with refrigeration, driving to the gym and all the nonsense (fun and comfort) of modern living, we would rather exploit the third worlds energy than do anything about inter-generational stability (sustainability).
But there will be a gradual and continual recession Post-Peak, not a sharp abrupt cliff. Okay there will continue to be great exploitation by elites, as “entrepreneurs” have an eye for the main chance, and this continues inequity between groups. But what’s new in that ? The rules will change and those that can see the underlying reasons may choose to prosper at others expense. Cest la vie. Darwin in action, in a timescale we may even start to see before our eyes. There is huge scope for energy efficiency within the elites, long before necessary dieoff.
Okay I hear you say he has forgotten about the role of food. Well currently the typical sunday lunch in the UK travels twice round the world – a total of 49,000 miles. How absurd! (Source Ergo magazine Winter Issue 1 2001). I can either get my carrots flown in from South Africa and my Broccoli flown in from Guatemala, or alternatively I can buy them from farms only 2 miles from my house. Which makes sense in terms of energy use? Suddenly reducing my energy consumption by a factor of 12.8 seems like childsplay.
The point is that in x years time when the global energy consumption is halved, there will still be some oil. In the intervening period the world will change greatly as the rich fat slobs (us) learn the lessons the hard way. It is largely up to the elites how they manage the transition. Managing the transition is the key. It will be rapidly-changing and difficult to predict and control. Better get started soon!
When I was a boy in the 1950/60’s I used to get into bed as quickly as possible in winter because my bedroom was so cold – ice on the inside of the single glazed window. I also used to chop firewood for our open fire for heating, and dig the garden and make a carrot pit to keep the carrots outside in winter.
Nowadays (2002) I have double-glazing, central heating, drive to the gym for exercise, go to centralised refrigerated food distribution points etc etc. with little personal discomfort.
If my energy footprint can increase so dramatically by many factors over the last 40 years, why can’t it go into decline over the next 40 years ? Sure there will be many more dissatisfied people going downhill, than there were going uphill last century. But perhaps the goals will become quality oriented rather than materially oriented .
Why does the slide along energy decline mean dieoff at the cliff ? It does not compute for me. Where is the cliff ? The urge to live is strong. You cut your cloth accordingly.
So how come we perceive dieoff. Is it the mental anguish of having to go out and dig the garden to grow vegetables, and chop firewood to provide heating that will cause the obese slobs to rollover and go to sleep forever?
I don’t doubt there will much mental and societal anguish, but dieoff ? Certainly the dangers of war will increase, and present greater challenges, but the inevitable conclusion of massive dieoff seems exaggerated to me.