Human Dieoff!  What comes after?

Timothy Wilken

We humans have a big problem. We are running out fossil fuels. Without fossil fuels the Earth can support only a fraction of today’s human population. Since those of us living today and our governments are making no effort to prepare for the coming crisis, when it occurs, most of us will die.

Those humans aware of the crisis are talking about what that future might be like. [ (1) (2) (3) ] Some say we will return to a lifestyle and quality of life similar to those humans living in 1100 AD. The following thread is from the Alas Babylon yahoo group.

Paul Kwon
Southern California

The year 2100 would look very much alike the year 1100.

Great plantations and labor camps will proliferate around the few arable land remaining, with corpses the greatest source of fertilizers. All human rights and such niceities would be gone. Freedom and the like would be a long-lost ideal, not to be remembered again. Especially when predators come from the wild time to time.

The few tribes which end up at the top will dominate everything, with the few remaining mass broatcast systems. There would be a radio for each village, ready for the Master’s next directive.

There would be people like the Postman in David Brin’s book, who will work at his utmost to restore order. If I somehow survive the Dieoff, if you see a yellow face it would probably be me. However, such measure is a better solution than a full-flowered chaos and mayhem. At least there would be order.

Arthur Noll
Sacramento, California

Like 1100AD? No, I see a microscope in the village, the sources of disease are not forgotten, and disease is not an unseen killer stalking the village. There are no human predators outside, war has become a curiosity of the history books, a mass madness that died out in the great die off. Occasionally a child is born that goes mad like that, 20 years ago they had to turn one out like that, no regard for sustainability, destructive, clever yet unthoughtful at the same time, self centered. He finally really hurt someone and they threw him out, raving at them how stupid they were, that he could have made them great. His corpse was found a month later, surrounding villages had been told about him and refused such a dangerous person in. It was a sad thing to have happen, but it was very rare that it happened. There were predators to be careful of, wolves and bears. A man had been killed by a bear ten years ago, exactly what had happened wasn’t sure, but he had apparently been too careless, went out to check on a fish trap alone, in the evening. People usually went out in pairs.

They fertilized with corpses, true, the corpses of dead fish that swam the river to spawn, the people who died of old age or accident, the corpses of dead vegetation. Herders came to visit, always an exciting time, and took away grain, left animal products. Young people would frequently do exchanges,to learn another way of life, meet other people. Sometimes they came back, sometimes they stayed, but the balance of population in each place was understood to be something to hold to. There was some flexibility, but they had an good idea of the problems that could arise in their area, and that a factor of safety needed to be held on the matter. People made marriage vows to the group, as well as to each other, to reproduce as the needs of the group to live in balance dictated. Sometimes mistakes were made, but it was rare, and sometimes an unexpected death would balance an unexpected pregnancy. Other times, an abortion would be done. Usually two children were enough, sometimes a third was asked for, if someone had died unexpectedly.

If someone got sick or hurt and their doctor needed help, there was a radio and a hospital down the river. People were experimenting with different ideas about communication. About the only electricity in the village was for communication at this point. If boat travel wasn’t fast enough, there was an airplane. It was very exciting to see, very expensive to run, but they had worked with other groups to make it, they had worked out the cost of having it, vs the cost of raising people to replace someone who died without it, and it had seemed a good idea. They were monitoring closely if their calculations were working out, and it seemed to be. It was also proving useful to count animal populations, and keep track of what could be taken. There were people always thinking about how to make the next plane more efficient, as they went about their lives. There were people thinking about an even bigger project, to monitor asteroids, and figure out a possible defense. This network of figuring and planning was worldwide, it was a massive project, but if everyone contributed a little, it seemed some things could be tried.

So, in my vision of the future, there is a combination of the very old, and the new. There are challenges for the abilities of everyone, life doesn’t have to be endlessly dull, but neither do we need to create problems for each other by so much needless aggression. People get attention by having good ideas, by being competent at given jobs. The basic values are harmony, energy efficiency and sustainability for the whole.

Loss of Cheap Energy Doesn’t Mean Loss of Knowledge

I agree with Arthur Noll. We humans are simply squandering our inherited wealth of cheap energy. When the fossil fuels are gone, we still won’t be as energy poor as those humans living in 1100AD, but we will be severely overpopulated for the available energy.

If we wish to avoid a dieoff, there must be a major change in our lifestyle. Human reproduction MUST be temporarily STOPPED, to allow a planned reduction in our population.

We also won’t be as ignorant as those humans living in 1100AD. We don’t have to return to a society dominated by adversity. We can choose synergy.