It’s Getting Harder to Pretend the Sky is Not Falling
Wednesday, April 15th, 2009
Ilargi writes: The upbeat messages coming from the guys I labeled the Three Stooges,
Summers, Obama and Bernanke (and Geithner can be their D’Artagnan) were
this morning put into a very bright light, and a clear focus, by the
arguably worst overall economic numbers to come out of the downturn to
date. I would strongly suggest that when they try that again, they take
the opportunity to address these numbers while they’re at it.
Political
capital is not something that is based on, or derived from, rational
evaluations. The majority of Obama’s popularity doesn’t seem to come
from people who do much if any analysis of his economic policies; they
are simply under his spell (or his wife’s, daughters’ or dog’s). What I
personally probably like least of all is that the president himself,
through his refusal to come clean on economic realities, and to be open
to the people about the miserable state the country is in, lends
credibility to these asinine tea parties sprouting up, which have as
much to do with reality as the commander-in-chief’s recent speeches.
The more lies and half-truths the White House spreads, the more they
empower the forces lining up against them. If you don’t tell the truth,
Mr. President, they don’t need to either. Here’s the crunching:
-
Sam Zell, who made billions in the field, says US commercial real
estate values are already down 30%. That is at a time when just about
everyone still tries not to talk even mention CRE.
-
The US consumer price index fell at an annual rate of 0.4% in March,
the first time since August 1955 prices have decreased on a
year-over-year basis. - March retail sales fell 1.1% since February, while wholesale prices fell 1.2%.
-
March output for factories, mines and utilities fell 1.5% in the past
month. Industrial production is down 13.3% since the recession began in
December 2007 and 12.8% since March 2008. Output fell at a 20%
annualized rate during the first quarter of 2009. - Factory production dropped 1.7% in March; it has fallen 15.7% since December 2007, and 15% in the past 12 months.
- Vehicle output is down 34.5% in the past year.
- Production of high-tech equipment fell 3.1% for the second month in a row, for a cumulative drop of 22.6% in the past year.
- As
of March - or halfway through fiscal year 2009 - federal tax revenue is
14%, or $160 billion, lower than last year, the Congressional Budget
Office reported. - Individual income tax receipts dropped 15% while those for businesses fell a whopping 57%.
- Revenue from miscellaneous taxes and fees has fallen by $10 billion, or 12%.
- Local tax collections rose 3.2%, as gains in property taxes (!!) offset falling sales taxes.
- David Walker, former comptroller general of the United States, warns taxes will double.
- Government spending levels midway through the fiscal year rose by $480 billion, or 33 percent.
-
Large increases in how much the federal government spent on Medicaid
(up 17%) and “other activities” (up 21%) like unemployment benefits. -
The CBO estimates that the annual deficit will spike to between $1.67
trillion and $1.85 trillion. That’s nearly four times last year’s
then-record $455 billion deficit.
-
Foreclosure sales had dropped in the second half of 2008 as mortgage
companies delayed taking action against delinquent borrowers. -
But foreclosure-related filings increased by nearly 6% in February from
the month earlier, and were up almost 30% from February 2008. -
More than 2.1 million homes will be lost this year because borrowers
can’t meet their loan payments, up from about 1.7 million in 2008,
according to Moody’s Economy.com. …
I can’t wait for the next clown to claim the “shallow recession” is over. Anybody keeping tabs on who says what when about what point in the future? It’ll be a gas. (04/15/09)
more…





