John L. Petersen writes: For almost a decade now, I have been traveling broadly speaking
to groups of all sizes and  almost every discipline you can think of
about the big change that appeared to be converging on the
horizon.   

Often characterizing the coming shift in terms of breakdowns and
breakthroughs, I’ve tried to build integrated mental pictures of the
extraordinary nexus of driving forces – both conventional and
unconventional – that seemed destined to reconfigure the way we live
on this planet.  My book, Out of the Blue, introduced an approach for
making sense out of big events that would otherwise be surprises, and my
latest volume, A
Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change, uses the
breakdown/breakthrough themes to propose a general approach for dealing
with large scale change. 

So, I’ve been thinking about this possibility for quite
some time.   (My wife would probably tell you that I think about it
all of the time.)

I generally agree with the many thoughtful people who consider
predicting the future to be a fool’s errand.   It is
intrinsically fraught with so much complexity and uncertainty that the best
one can do with integrity is to array potential alternatives –
scenarios – across the horizon, and then try to think about what
might be done if one of those worlds materializes.  

Scenario planning has certainly been an effective discipline,
helping many organizations to imagine potentialities that probably
otherwise wouldn’t have shown up in their field of view.  But as
I facilitate organizations going through these exercises, the little,
nagging voice in the back of my head is not asking, “What is the
array of possible futures?” – it is always wondering,
“What is the future really going to be?”  It wants
concreteness.  It wants predictions.    
  

I think that no one knows for sure what the future will bring,
but after some time of being in this business one begins to be able to
discriminate between what is substantive and structural and what is largely
speculative.  For me, at least, some things have an intuitive sense of
being real and important, and the rest of the possibilities lack just
enough gravitas that I know that they’re only
“ideas”.  That intuitive sense is supported when it
becomes possible to triangulate from a number of independent sources that
all point to the same conclusion – the possibility has substance.
 

People always ask me after my talks what I think is going to
happen.  “With all of these converging trends, what is 2012
really going to look like?”.  It happened again last week in a
radio interview.  Mostly I hedge and dance a bit and say that I
don’t know for sure.  There will be a new world and a new human
that will come out of all of this.  The notion of cooperation will
shape the way people see themselves and the rest of the world . . . and
there will be new institutions and functions, etc.   Pretty general
stuff. 

But, over a year ago, the notion that all of this big change
could spell the substantial reconfiguration of the familiar country that I
have lived in all of my life began to gel in a way that moved beyond the
notion of being just a possibility – a wild card – into that
space of plausibility.  I now have come to believe that it is likely
and will happen – soon. …

So, what to do in the face of unprecedented change?  Two
specific things come to mind:

1. Plan for the transition – Start to think now
   about how you’re going to provide for yourself and those who are
   important to you in a time when many things don’t work the way that
   always have in the past.  Dmitry Orlov talks about some options in his
   above-mentioned talk and book.  There are many websites and books on
   this subject.
    
2. Key Concept:  Cooperation – You
   can’t do this alone.  Start to work together with like-minded
   individuals to sustain yourself – regardless of whether your concerns
   are food, water, shelter, transportation or finances.

3. Start thinking about the new world –
   Now is the time to begin contemplating the design of the new
   world.  Governments should be doing this.  Companies should start
   skunk works.  Big international organizations should put it on their
   agendas.

Here’s the catch.  This might not happen. 
Personally, I think that if there is any one person that has the potential
to at least soften this transition it is Barack Obama. As I’ve
suggested, he will have his hands full just trying to get the underlying
people and institutions to think differently and act fast enough, but if
anyone has the chance to pull it off, it would be him.  Already
he’s getting government to move faster and in more substantive ways
than any of his predecessors. It may be, by the way, that he will be the
best guy to wind down the old system and reconstitute a new one. 
It’s all of the other folks running the government that I’d be
concerned about – the ones who continue to see the world as it used
to be. (03/05/09)
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Joshua Holland at AlterNet writes: The worldwide economic meltdown has sent the wheels spinning off the
project of building a single, business-friendly global economy. 

Worldwide, industrial production has ground to a halt. Goods are stacking up, but nobody’s buying; the Washington Post reports
that “the world is suddenly awash in almost everything: flat-panel
televisions, bulldozers, Barbie dolls, strip malls, Burberry stores.” A
Hong Kong-based shipping broker told The Telegraph that his firm had “seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit≠igated disaster.” The Economist noted
that one can now ship a container from China to Europe for free — you
only need to pick up the fuel and handling costs — but half-empty
freighters are the norm along the world’s busiest shipping routes.  Global airfreight dropped by almost a quarter
in December alone; Giovanni Bisignani, who heads a shipping industry
trade group, called the “free fall” in global cargo “unprecedented and
shocking.”

And while Americans have every reason to be terrified about their own econopocalypse, the New York Times noted that everything is relative: 

In
the fourth quarter of last year, the American economy shrank at a 3.8
percent annual rate, the worst such performance in a quarter-century.
They are envious in Japan, where this week the comparable figure came
in at negative 12.7 percent — three times as bad. 

Industrial
production in the United States is falling at the fastest rate in three
decades. But the 10 percent year-over-year plunge reported this week
for January looks good in comparison to the declines in countries like
Germany, off almost 13 percent in its most recently reported month, and
South Korea, down about 21 percent. 

Chinese manufacturing declined in each of the last five months; according to the Financial Times,
“More than 20 [million] rural migrant workers in China have lost their
jobs and returned to their home villages or towns as a result of the
global economic crisis.” The UN estimates that the downturn could claim 50 million jobs worldwide, prompting Dennis Blair, the U.S. National Intelligence Director, to warn Congress
that, “instability caused by the global economic crisis had become the
biggest security threat facing the United States, outpacing terrorism.” 

Riots, strikes and other forms of civil unrest have become widespread the world over; governments have fallen. In Europe, parties of the far right and left have seen their fortunes rise. 

The
model of economic globalization that’s dominated during the past 40
years is, if not dead, at least in critical condition. …

International trade existed long before the era of economic
globalization, and will continue after its demise. The so-called “free
trade” agreements championed by both Democratic and Republican
lawmakers, liberals and conservatives alike, for the past few decades
was always less about trade than constraining the policy options of
governments through treaty.

The one likely bright spot in all
this is that the cookie-cutter, one-size-fits-all economic orthodoxy
lies in ruins. What will replace it is a question for the long-term. (03/05/09)
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BBC Paleobiological Science — Two brothers have discovered what is thought to be the world’s oldest recorded spider’s web encased in amber on an East Sussex beach. The amber, which was found in Bexhill, was formed about 140 million years ago in the Cretaceous period. Amateur fossil hunter Jamie Hiscocks and his brother Jonathan also found the fossilised remains of a Iguanodon jaw bone on the coastline.

The spider web thread is now being studied at Oxford University. Professor Martin Brasier, a palaeobiologist at the university, said: “You can see where the web is attached to the surface. If it is confirmed - and we think we have got good evidence for it - then it would be the oldest preserved spider’s web and the oldest fossil silk, I think, in the fossil record.”

Fossilised charcoal was also found in the fossil beds near to the amber at low tide on the coast between Hastings and Cooden. Scientists think the web became trapped in conifer resin after a forest fire and then became fossilised inside the resulting amber.

Jamie Hiscocks, who has been hunting for fossils for more than 10 years, said: “The strata beds are actually being broken up all the time. Most of the pieces are actually just lying there on the surface. You pick it up, just bend down and pick it up.”

He added: “I couldn’t believe it because we’d actually said the week before at a meeting we had had, ‘What would you like to find? What would your most precious find be’, and I said ‘A spider’s web would be fantastic’.” (03/05/09
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BBC Entomological Science – Scientists say there is no proof that a mysterious disease blamed for the deaths of billions of bees actually exists. For five years, increasing numbers of unexplained bee deaths have been reported worldwide, with US commercial beekeepers suffering the most. The term Colony Collapse Disorder was coined to describe the illness. But many experts now believe that the term is misleading and there is no single, new ailment killing the bees.

In part of California, the honeybee is of crucial importance to the local economy as 80% of the world’s almonds come from there - America’s most valuable horticultural export. But without the bee pollinating the trees, there would be no almonds.

In a few frenzied weeks in February and March, billions of honey bees are transported to the state from as far away as Florida to flit innocently among the snowy almond blossoms, and ensure the success of this lucrative crop. However, since 2004 their numbers have been mysteriously declining, and it was only at the end of 2006 that the severity of the losses began to be fully realised. …

Since then around two million colonies of bees have disappeared across the US. And the losses have continued this year, albeit at a lower rate. The unexplained nature of the affliction, with empty hives and no clearly defined infection, has stumped scientists. …

They developed a concept called Colony Collapse Disorder, or CCD.

Dr Jeff Pettis, a researcher with the US Department of Agriculture Bee Lab, said CCD applied to colonies which died although there were no high levels of parasites: “The colony was once strong, it reared a lot of young developing bees and then the adult bee population simply disappeared or died. With those symptoms it certainly is unique and it doesn’t really match up with our expectations for parasitic mite loss and the like.”

But to date researchers have found few clues as to the exact cause of the disorder. And some senior scientists now say the “disorder” does not exist as a separate illness.

Dr Dennis Anderson, principal research scientist on entomology with the Australian research organisation CSIRO, said the term could be distracting scientists from other work: “It’s misleading in the fact that the general public and beekeepers and now even researchers are under the impression that we’ve got some mysterious disorder here in our bees. And so researchers around the world are running round trying to find the cause of the disorder - and there’s absolutely no proof that there’s a disorder there.” His view is shared by some experts in the US.

Conducting experiments at an isolated almond orchard in the Central Valley area of California, Frank Eischen, of the US Department of Agriculture, said it was “probably true” that there was no new single disease. “We’ve seen these kinds of symptoms before, during the seventies, during the nineties, and now,” he added. “It’s probably not a unique event in beekeeping to have large numbers of colonies die.”

Many experts speak about a “perfect storm” of impacts that are the real reason for the decline. Principal among them are infestations of the varroa mite, which suck the bees’ blood and weaken their immune systems. There are also concerns that bees are being deprived of nutrition as urbanisation removes their natural pastures. One of the biggest worries is the possible impact of agricultural pesticides. It is believed these chemicals can have a similar effect in bees as alcohol has in humans - they disorientate the bees, causing them to get lost on the way home. (03/05/09)
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BBC Anthropological Science – Horses were domesticated much earlier than previously thought, according to a team of researchers. They found evidence suggesting that the animals were used by a culture in northern Kazakhstan 5,500 years ago. Until now, the earliest evidence of horse riding was metal parts from harnesses dating from the Bronze Age. Writing in Science, a team from Exeter University, UK, suggested that the community in Kazakhstan rode their horses 1,000 years earlier. They also ate them and drank their milk, possibly as an alcoholic brew.

The researchers traced the origins of horse domestication to the Botai culture of Kazakhstan. Analysis of ancient bones showed that the horses were a similar shape to domesticated horses from the Bronze Age.

The team studied the remains for evidence of damage to their mouths and teeth caused by the riding bits used to harness the animals. The scientists also analysed the remains of food and drink in pottery and traces of horse meat and milk.

Horse milk is still drunk in Kazakhstan, usually fermented into an alcoholic drink known as koumiss.

Lead researcher Dr Alan Outram from Exeter University, said horse domestication was an important indication of the state of human civilisation. “The domestication of the horse does have implications for human culture globally,” he said. It increases people’s ability to trade and it has great advantages in warfare. So if we are moving the origins of horse domestication much further back, we are going to have to think about the impact on the development of human culture at the time.” (03/05/09)
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