The Tragedy of the Commons
Monday, June 20th, 2005
Garrett Hardin
wrote: Population, as Malthus said, naturally tends to grow
“geometrically,” or, as we would now say, exponentially. In a finite
world this means that the per capita share of the world’s goods must
steadily decrease. Is ours a finite world?
A fair defense can be put forward for the view that the world
is infinite; or that we do not know that it is not. But, in terms of
the practical problems that we must face in the next few generations
with the foreseeable technology, it is clear that we will greatly
increase human misery if we do not, during the immediate future, assume
that the world available to the terrestrial human population is finite.
“Space” is no escape. A finite world can support only a finite
population; therefore, population growth must eventually equal zero.
(The case of perpetual wide fluctuations above and below zero is a
trivial variant that need not be discussed.) When this condition is
met, what will be the situation of mankind? Specifically, can Bentham’s
goal of “the greatest good for the greatest number” be realized?
No–for two reasons, each sufficient by itself. The first is a
theoretical one. It is not mathematically possible to maximize for two
(or more) variables at the same time. This was clearly stated by von
Neumann and Morgenstern, but the principle is implicit in the
theory of partial differential equations, dating back at least to
D’Alembert (1717-1783).
The second reason springs directly from biological facts. To live, any
organism must have a source of energy (for example, food). This energy
is utilized for two purposes: mere maintenance and work. For man,
maintenance of life requires about 1600 kilocalories a day
(”maintenance calories”). Anything that he does over and above merely
staying alive will be defined as work, and is supported by “work
calories” which he takes in. Work calories are used not only for what
we call work in common speech; they are also required for all forms of
enjoyment, from swimming and automobile racing to playing music and
writing poetry. If our goal is to maximize population it is obvious
what we must do: We must make the work calories per person approach as
close to zero as possible. No gourmet meals, no vacations, no sports,
no music, no literature, no art … I think that everyone will grant,
without argument or proof, that maximizing population does not maximize
goods. Bentham’s goal is impossible. In reaching this conclusion
I have made the usual assumption
that it is the acquisition of energy that is the problem. The
appearance of atomic energy has led some to question this assumption.
However, given an infinite source of energy, population growth still
produces an inescapable problem. The problem of the acquisition of
energy is replaced by the problem of its dissipation, as J. H. Fremlin
has so wittily shown. The arithmetic signs in the analysis are, as
it were, reversed; but Bentham’s goal is still unobtainable. The
optimum population is, then, less than the maximum. The
difficulty of defining the optimum is enormous; so far as I know, no
one has seriously tackled this problem. Reaching an acceptable and
stable solution will surely require more than one generation of hard
analytical work–and much persuasion. We want the maximum good per
person; but what is good? To one
person it is wilderness, to another it is ski lodges for thousands. To
one it is estuaries to nourish ducks for hunters to shoot; to another
it is factory land. Comparing one good with another is, we usually say,
impossible because goods are incommensurable. Incommensurables cannot
be compared. (06/20/05)
more…





